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Issue polls -- surveys that ask how people feel about specific issues (instead of *who* they’re going to vote for) -- can vary quite a lot. TheWeek.com says it really depends on how you word the question and who you ask
Issue polling
The Week
Issue polls -- surveys that ask how people feel about specific issues (instead of *who* they’re going to vote for) -- can vary quite a lot. TheWeek.com says it really depends on how you word the question and who you ask
Ipsos
For example, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 62% opposed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill while 37% supported it. This poll summarized the law and asked a sample of national adults
Politico
But a Morning Consult/Politico survey found 50% in favor and 34% opposed. It, too, summarized the law, but also described the pro and con positions. And it limited the survey to registered voters
Public Opinion Strategies
And yet another poll (from Public Opinion Strategies) found 61% of Americans supported
PolitiFact
Polling on abortion is also complex and hard to decipher, says PolitiFact. People have nuanced views, and how you word the question can swing the results a lot
Fox News
Polling can even contradict itself. For example, a recent Fox News poll found a solid majority didn’t want to overturn Roe. But it also found that narrow majorities were in favor of banning abortion after 6 weeks and 15 weeks -- both of which aren’t allowed under Roe
WaPo
WaPo says polling on transgender athletes is even murkier. Here, question wording likely has less of an impact. People just haven’t made up their minds yet
CNN
CNN says a common mistake in issue polling is to word a question so that it only gives one side of the argument
Pew Research
Pew agrees issue polls have problems, but it’s probably not as bad as when you ask people who they’re going to vote for. People are more polarized on candidates, less on issues -- so if you miss, say, some GOP voters when polling for a candidate, you get bad results
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight gives two more reasons why issue polls are better than candidate polls: 1. They don’t have to model voter turnout (which is really hard) and 2. A 2-3% error won’t change the results of an issue poll (but could change an election result)
Vanderbilt
And even with all its problems, a Vanderbilt poli sci prof defends the issue poll! Public opinion polls are still the best ways to know what citizens think. That’s really important in a representative democracy
The Guardian
But The Guardian says it’s OK for political leaders to ignore issue polls. Their job is to lead and persuade, not simply parrot current public opinion
Cato
A poli sci prof from University of Illinois basically agrees: Public opinion polls shouldn’t decide what lawmakers do. The people being polled don’t fully get the real-world tradeoffs and risks
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