BBC asks, how do breakaway states form? International law experts say you need a territory, a government, some national or cultural unity, and diplomatic ties -- and ultimately, U.N. recognition
Right now, there are a handful of breakaway states in the world, most of them near Russia -- like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Artsakh, and Transnistria. The U.N. does not recognize any of them, but all have their own governments and laws -- Insider
Some background from the Carnegie Endowment: The Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 split Caucasia into several countries, and borders were tough to draw. There were several bloody conflicts. Today, many of the borders are disputed
The USIP says these regions are in “frozen conflict” -- there’s technically no fighting, but it could resume at a moment’s notice. The Ukraine war might unfreeze all these conflicts, depending on who wins
Each breakaway state is rife with political instability, military conflicts, and global isolation. CrisisGroup says this crippled their COVID responses and led to needless death
The Conversation Magazine says Russia uses a particular political strategy with these regions -- “recognition” followed by annexation. Prior to the Ukraine war, Russia did this with the Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk
Take as another example South Ossetia. It violently separated from Georgia in the early 90s. Russia recognizes South Ossetia, and is now trying to annex the region. Georgia doesn’t recognize the region, and challenges annexation -- BBC
But Russia’s annexation efforts are stymied for now. In May 2022, South Ossetia’s President scheduled a referendum on joining Russia, but then he lost re-election. The new President canceled the vote -- Reuters
Abkhazia is also on the Georgian/Russian border. The region won a war against Georgia in ‘92. Russia also recognizes Abkhazia, and has made inroads with the local government. In 2014, they signed a “strategic partnership” agreement. Georgia says Russia’s plan is annexation -- BBC
IWPR: For Abkhazia, over-reliance on Russia is a major weakness -- The Ukrainian war forced Russia to decrease support, possibly triggering an economic nightmare that’d force Abkhazia to cut a deal with Georgia
Artsakh (also called Nagorno-Karabakh) split from Azerbaijan in 1994 after the brutal 6-year war between Azerbaijan and Armenia -- today the region is de facto Armenian, but Azerbaijan reclaimed some land in a 2020 invasion -- BBC
Open Democracy says the Ukraine war also puts Artsakh in a bind -- if Russia wins, their autonomy is at risk. If Russia loses, their security forces will probably pull out, and the Azerbaijanis will be free to enter
Then there’s Transnistria, which broke away from Moldova in 1992 -- it’s situated right on the Ukraine-Moldovan border, and it’s supported militarily, economically, and politically by Russia -- BBC
Because of Transnistria’s location and Russian influence, some are worried that the region could be roped into the Ukraine war. If so, the region would certainly fight for Russia -- Vox